Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has made a bold and optimistic prediction that could redefine India’s automobile landscape when he said electric vehicle (EV) prices will match petrol car rates by early 2026.
Speaking at the 20th Ficci Higher Education Summit, he said that EVs will cost the same as petrol cars within 4–6 months, and could even become cheaper in 2–3 years.
 |
| EV adoption in India still faces a lot of hurdles. |
If this happens, it could be a massive turning point for EV adoption in India — a market that’s already growing rapidly but still faces several hurdles.
But is such a timeline realistic? Let’s analyse the factors that could make or break this forecast.
The promise: EV price parity within months
According to Gadkari, India is on the brink of price parity between electric and petrol-powered vehicles.
He stated, “In the next 4–6 months, the prices of electric vehicles will match those of petrol vehicles.”
This prediction rests on the idea that EV manufacturing costs are dropping quickly due to advancements in technology, economies of scale, and government support.
If true, this could make EVs far more affordable and accelerate the country’s shift towards clean mobility.
Current EV landscape in India
India’s EV market is already on a strong growth path. In FY24, the country sold 1.68 million EVs, marking a significant jump from previous years.
Most of these are two- and three-wheelers, which make up nearly 70 per cent of total EV sales.
However, electric cars are now catching up. Affordable models like the Tata Tiago EV and MG Comet EV have already made EVs accessible to middle-class buyers, many of whom are considering switching due to rising fuel costs.
India also aims to become a global EV manufacturing hub and reduce oil imports by 20–30 per cent by 2030. But the question remains — can affordability really arrive so soon?
Key challenge: The high cost of batteries
The biggest obstacle to cheaper EVs is the battery pack, which contributes 40–50 per cent of the total vehicle cost.
While battery prices have fallen globally by around 90 per cent in the last decade, they are still relatively high in India due to import dependence, especially for lithium and other rare materials.
The government’s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, with investments worth Rs 25,000 crore, aims to boost local battery manufacturing.
If domestic production picks up and supply chains become more efficient, costs could indeed drop substantially in the next few years — but 4–6 months seems overly ambitious.
Infrastructure and ecosystem gaps
For mass EV adoption, charging infrastructure remains a major pain point. India currently has far fewer public charging stations compared to global numbers.
Range anxiety — the fear of running out of charge before finding a station — still affects consumer confidence.
Moreover, India’s diverse climate and terrain also impact battery performance and durability.
Without robust infrastructure and consistent battery quality, a sudden surge in EV demand could face logistical and operational roadblocks.
What could drive the price drop of EVs?
Several positive trends support Gadkari’s optimism:
Falling lithium-ion battery costs due to global overcapacity
Government incentives like FAME II and PLI
Rising local production of EV components
Private sector investments by automakers such as Tata Motors, Mahindra, and Ola Electric
These developments could make EVs more affordable — but most experts believe parity with petrol cars may realistically take 2–3 years, not months.
E-Vroooom’s views
Change to EVs hopeful but not immediate
Gadkari’s prediction highlights the government’s strong confidence in India’s EV transition. India is definitely moving in the right direction with continued policy support.
However, while cost reduction is clearly on the horizon, price parity within 4–6 months seems unlikely between petrol cars and EVs, given the current infrastructure, supply chain, and production realities.
No comments:
Post a Comment